Weather Report: Barak Valley May See Year’s First Spell of Rain by February-End

Silchar and Hailakandi may receive the first spell of rainfall this year around February 28, according to the latest forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The report predicts a partly cloudy sky with one or two spells of rain on 28 February, with similar conditions likely on 1 March.

In the days leading up to February 28, the weather is expected to remain hazy. The minimum temperature may drop only to about 15°C, while the maximum temperature could reach around 33°C. Temperatures are predicted to stay almost the same on February 28 and March 1, although brief rain spells may occur during this period.

After a long dry spell across the Barak Valley, even light rain would be widely welcomed. Many areas are currently facing heavy dust in the air due to prolonged dryness. Trees and plants in several locations are coated with dust, and airborne particles have made breathing uncomfortable, especially for sensitive groups. Rainfall can help wash away or settle these dust particles, improving air quality. It would also provide much-needed moisture for vegetation, helping greenery recover and thrive.

There are also early signs of water stress in some rural pockets of the valley. Traditional water sources such as ponds, small streams and shallow wells have begun to dry up gradually. A spell of rain at this stage could slow down the emerging water scarcity.

Weather forecasts are produced using scientific models that analyse atmospheric conditions such as temperature, humidity, wind patterns, pressure systems and satellite observations. Meteorologists feed this data into computer models to estimate how weather systems may evolve over the coming days.

However, the atmosphere is highly dynamic, and small changes in conditions can alter outcomes. As a result, forecasts beyond a few days carry uncertainty. Local factors such as terrain, cloud development and shifting wind patterns can also affect whether rain actually occurs at a specific place.

At present, conditions appear favourable for brief rain spells around the end of February in Silchar and Hailakandi. But forecasts may be updated as new data becomes available.