Exit Polls : BJP-Led NDA Set to Storm Assam Again

With the Assam Assembly election results just days away on May 4, exit polls released on April 29 suggest a strong victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, while the Congress-led opposition remains significantly behind.

Several exit polls have presented varying figures, but the overall trend remains consistent. For this report, six different surveys were examined. The NDA’s seat tally is estimated to range between 85 and 100 seats in the 126-member Assembly. In contrast, the Congress-led INDIA Bloc is projected to secure between 23 and 36 seats. Other parties, including the All India United Democratic Front and smaller regional groups, are expected to win only a limited number of seats.

Among the projections, Axis My India, Peoples Pulse and Matrize, which are relatively known polling agencies, indicate a strong performance by the NDA. Similar trends are also reflected in estimates released by Peoples Insight.

A breakdown of individual projections shows that Axis My India estimates the BJP to win 70 to 80 seats, with its allies Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) projected at 7 to 9 seats and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) at 9 to 11 seats, taking the NDA tally to 88 to 100. On the opposition side, the Congress is projected to win 22 to 30 seats, with Raijor Dal at 1 to 4 seats, Assam Jatiya Parishad at 1 to 2 seats, Communist Party of India (Marxist) at 0 to 1 seat and independents including APHLC at 0 to 2 seats, taking the Congress-led alliance to 24 to 36 seats.

Meanwhile, Peoples Pulse and Matrize project the NDA in the range of around 85 to 95 seats, with the Congress-led alliance between roughly 25 and 32 seats. Estimates by Peoples Insight also follow a similar pattern, placing the NDA in the high 80s to mid-90s and the opposition in the low 30s.

Exit polls are surveys conducted among voters immediately after they have cast their ballots, aimed at predicting the outcome of an election. They provide an early sense of voter preference and help indicate possible trends. However, exit polls are not always accurate. In previous elections, such projections have sometimes differed from actual results, and analysts advise caution while interpreting these figures. They are not the final results but offer an early idea of what to expect.

The final outcome will be confirmed when votes are counted and official results are declared by the Election Commission of India. The results, scheduled to be announced on May 4, will determine whether the BJP-led NDA retains power in Assam or if the Congress manages a comeback.